Department of Research

The core mandate of the section is to support development of analytically sound, evidence based policies and programmes within the Ministry as well as regularly monitor economic developments, in order to keep Ministry Management informed on the changing macroeconomic landscape in the country.

The focus of the Department is on a wide variety of research needs that have been identified by the Ministry to support macroeconomic and financial policy formulation and implementation classified as follows:

1. Economic commentary and analysis that entail development of weekly synopsis of relevant economic news; monitoring of high-frequency economic data to provide monthly economic activity updates before the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and analysis of statistical releases.
2. Macroeconomic Modelling and forecasting which is central to the work on Macroeconomic Policy, used in preparing economic forecasts, scenario modelling, policy impact analysis, and the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) implementation.
3. Detailed Research and Data Analysis to address the need for more elaborate research on specific topics, which would typically be policy- or data-driven. Some policy issues require intensive research to inform policy decisions and this could be addressed through engagement in deeper analysis of some research topics supporting the Ministry’s key functions. For example the productivity of different types of public investment and policy responsibilities such as those related to exchange rate policy.

There are four Units and their responsibilities as follows:

           i.       Modelling and Forecasting Unit

The unit is responsible for maintaining the Ministry’s macroeconomic modelling and forecasting models. The models are used to provide regular updated macroeconomic forecasts used for modelling the impact of policy scenarios as well as exogenous shocks on the economy.

         ii.       Fiscal and Debt, Real Economy and Sustainability Unit

The unit is mandated to undertake research and analysis related to fiscal policy, debt, the real economy (employment, diversification, trade, and exchange rates etc.), and economic sustainability including issues related to the economic impact of climate change and the “green transition”.

       iii.       Financial Sector Unit

The Unit provides research and analysis on issues related to the financial sector. The research focuses on issues among others, access to finance and the financial inclusion strategy and roadmap, the non-bank financial sector, capital markets, and financial sector development more generally. 

       iv.       Data Management Unit

Comprehensive data is essential for high quality research. This includes domestic time series data, both economic and non-economic; international data; and survey data. A centralised data management function in the unit support commentary, analysis and modelling. The data would be contained in a regularly updated, accessible database